A leader should base an educated guess on which sources?

• A. All of the above
• B. Previous experience
• C. Knowledge of enemy operations and available intelligence
• D. Likely outcomes

Answer: (A)

Under uncertainty, a leader should ground an educated guess in a balanced mix of inputs. Previous experience helps you recognize patterns, anticipate reactions, and apply lessons learned from similar situations. Knowledge of enemy operations and available intelligence provides up-to-date facts about capabilities, intent, and probable moves, reducing guesswork. Considering likely outcomes forces you to weigh consequences and risk, ensuring decisions align with objectives and what’s most probable. Taken together, these sources complement each other, with experience guiding interpretation of data, intelligence supplying current information, and outcome analysis keeping choices focused on risk and reward. Relying on only one source leaves blind spots: experience can be outdated, intelligence may be incomplete, and outcome projections can miss hidden factors.